One of my favorite baseball writers is Bill James, a man who is famous for his ability to break down the game with interesting statistics. I found an old Baseball Abstract, a book he published in the 80's, that gives his formula for picking the winner of baseball playoff series. He said that it had a 70 pct accuracy rating.
So, once all the division races are settled, and I know who plays who, I will pick my own winners in each series and let James pick his with this formula and we'll see who does better. I'll award one point for picking a division series winner correct, three for a league champion and five for the world series winner. Obviously if one of us has a team winning the World Series that gets beat in the first round we are out of luck.
Here's a breakdown of James formula (note, some of it defies logic, but, again, it works 70 percent of the time)
1. Give one point per half-game difference in record. So if a team is 100-62, plays a 90-72 team that is 20 points.
2. 3 points to team with more runs scored
3. 14 points to team with FEWER doubles
4. 12 points to team with MORE triples
5. 10 points to team with MORE home runs
6. 8 points to team with LOWER batting average
7. 8 points to team with FEWER errors
8. 7 points to team that's turned MORE double plays
9. 7 points to team whose pitchers have walked MORE men
10. 19 points to team with MORE shutouts
11. 15 points to team with LOWER ERA or if World Series team whose ERA is lower than the league average by more
12. 12 points to team in postseason play more recently. If both were in same year than give to team which did better
13. 12 points to lead that lead in head-to-head competition (not used for world series)
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